2026 · DiamondIQ
Matchup Predictor
Pick any two of the 304 Division I teams and a venue. Each side's opponent-adjusted offense and run prevention set its expected runs, and a calibrated curve turns the margin into a win probability. How it works
Projected game
neutral siteOklahoma
8.7
UCLA
8.1
Predicted margin Oklahoma by 0.59
| Stat | Oklahoma | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| DiamondIQ rating | 97.0 | 93.9 |
| Adj. runs scored / g | 10.62 | 11.46 |
| Adj. runs allowed / g | 1.75 | 3.17 |
| Net runs vs average | +8.87 | +8.28 |
Neutral site: no home-field term.
Series odds
Oklahoma wins series 60.2%Three-game weekend series
- 3-018.4%
- 2-141.8%
- 1-231.8%
- 0-38.0%
- Best-of-3 win
- 60.2%
- Win 2-0
- 32.3%
- Win 2-1
- 27.9%
Games treated as independent, all at the same site. Scores from Oklahoma's side: lime = Oklahoma wins the series, blue = UCLA.
How it works
Ratings are the final DiamondIQ 2026 solve: one ridge regression over all 7,634 D1-vs-D1 games of the 2026 season. Expected runs for a side are the league average (5.09) plus its offense term plus the opponent's defense term, with 0.10 runs added for the host and taken from the visitor. The margin is the difference.
Series odds assume each game is independent with the same single-game probability — a best-of-3 and a three-game weekend series are both “win two of three”.
The margin-to-probability curve was fitted on the 2025 season walk-forward — every game scored with ratings built only from games played before it — and then checked on the 2026 walk-forward. On all 7,634 of 2026's games the Brier score is 0.1954 (lower is better; a coin flip is 0.25), and a team given 75% won about 72% of the time, 85% about 84%. 2026 was also used to choose between a few candidate curves, so treat it as a check rather than an untouched holdout.
The rating knows runs, not rosters: injuries, the scheduled starting pitcher and transfers after the season are not in it. Home field is small here because the NCAA scoreboard does not mark neutral sites.