The rating softball never had
Softball has polls. It has never had a KenPom. This is one: every Division I team’s offense and defense pulled out of 7,542 games by a single ridge regression, so a run scored against Texas is not worth the same as a run scored against a twelve-win team. Click any team and the model shows its work.
- Games
- 7,542D1 vs D1
- Teams rated
- 301all of Division I
- Run environment
- 5.09runs / team / game
- Model error
- 3.37runs RMSE
Four arguments this starts
Where the model and the final ESPN.com/USA Softball poll disagree — specifically, and checkably.
Oklahoma was the best team
The poll had them 9th. They had the 2nd-best offense and the 9th-best run prevention in Division I, went 17-8 against this list’s top 25, and outscored D1 opponents by +437 runs. Then they lost a super regional and the season ended.
The champion is only fifth
A rating that ignores trophies puts Texas 5th — on the toughest schedule in Division I, a 25-12 record against the top 25, and a run margin four teams beat. Both things can be true.
Clemson is the poll's biggest miss
13 spots of disagreement, the widest on the board. 34-22 overall, 6-11 against the top 25, and an adjusted 2.94 runs allowed per game that ranks 30th.
Omaha never got to play
34-11 and rated inside the top 30, but the 105th-toughest schedule in the country — so the résumé never existed and the selection committee never had to think about it.
Why is Oklahoma #1?
Oklahoma
52-9 vs D1Official 52-10Super regionalPoll #9 · model +8
50 = average D1 team
- #2Offense. 10.62 runs a game once you adjust for who they faced — the D1 average is 5.09.
- #9Run prevention. 1.76 allowed per game adjusted, on a 3.09 team ERA and a .981 fielding percentage.
- #22Schedule. The average opponent rated 65.1 — a genuinely brutal slate.
- 17-8Against the DiamondIQ top 25. +60 run differential across those 25 games.
- +437Run differential. 610 scored, 173 allowed in 61 D1 games.
- 25-6True road. 27-3 at home for contrast.
- 7-3Last ten. How they were playing when the season ended.
- RPI
- 0.65237th
- Elo
- 19086th
- Batting
- .384.786 SLG
- Team ERA
- 3.090.32 UER/G
Every figure is computed from 7,542 D1 games — none of it is typed in by hand. Pick any row in the board below to rebuild this panel.
The Top 50
Poll is the final ESPN.com/USA Softball Top 25. Δ is how far this model moves that team.
| # | Team | IQ | W-L | Adj O | Adj D | SOS | RPI | Elo | vs Top 25 | Poll | Δ | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Oklahoma | 97.0 | 52-9 | 10.62 | 1.76 | 22 | 7 | 1908 | 17-8 | 9 | ▲8 | Super regional |
| 2 |  UCLA | 93.9 | 52-9 | 11.46 | 3.19 | 21 | 9 | 1949 | 18-9 | 6 | ▲4 | WCWS |
| 3 |  Texas Tech | 93.2 | 60-9 | 9.64 | 1.50 | 32 | 8 | 1936 | 16-6 | 2 | ▼1 | National runner-up |
| 4 |  Arkansas | 90.8 | 46-12 | 9.10 | 1.40 | 2 | 1 | 1887 | 12-10 | 7 | ▲3 | WCWS |
| 5 |  Texas | 88.8 | 51-12 | 8.55 | 1.23 | 1 | 4 | 1948 | 25-12 | 1 | ▼4 | National champion |
| 6 |  Nebraska | 87.6 | 50-8 | 8.04 | 0.96 | 9 | 2 | 1949 | 14-8 | 5 | ▼1 | WCWS |
| 7 |  Alabama | 87.4 | 55-8 | 7.77 | 0.71 | 14 | 3 | 1958 | 15-6 | 3 | ▼4 | WCWS |
| 8 |  Florida | 87.3 | 50-12 | 9.01 | 1.97 | 12 | 5 | 1857 | 13-11 | 10 | ▲2 | Super regional |
| 9 |  Georgia | 82.8 | 39-20 | 8.24 | 2.05 | 5 | 16 | 1817 | 11-17 | 11 | ▲2 | Super regional |
| 10 |  Florida St. | 82.4 | 50-9 | 8.06 | 1.94 | 38 | 13 | 1868 | 4-8 | 17 | ▲7 | Regional |
| 11 |  Tennessee | 82.4 | 49-11 | 6.91 | 0.81 | 10 | 6 | 1853 | 18-8 | 4 | ▼7 | WCWS |
| 12 |  Texas A&M | 80.9 | 37-18 | 8.24 | 2.41 | 4 | 15 | 1801 | 11-16 | 19 | ▲7 | Regional |
| 13 |  LSU | 80.6 | 39-19 | 7.43 | 1.66 | 3 | 14 | 1813 | 10-18 | 15 | ▲2 | Super regional |
| 14 |  Virginia Tech | 80.5 | 47-11 | 8.25 | 2.50 | 51 | 18 | 1828 | 6-4 | 18 | ▲4 | Regional |
| 15 |  Duke | 77.0 | 45-17 | 8.38 | 3.28 | 15 | 11 | 1809 | 14-11 | 12 | ▼3 | Super regional |
| 16 |  Oregon | 76.9 | 41-13 | 7.57 | 2.49 | 19 | 10 | 1808 | 9-4 | 20 | ▲4 | Regional |
| 17 |  Mississippi St. | 76.9 | 43-20 | 6.39 | 1.32 | 7 | 12 | 1757 | 11-16 | 8 | ▼9 | WCWS |
| 18 |  Oklahoma St. | 76.7 | 41-18 | 7.51 | 2.48 | 16 | 17 | 1780 | 12-14 | 14 | ▼4 | Super regional |
| 19 |  Arizona St. | 76.2 | 44-17 | 7.81 | 2.87 | 28 | 23 | 1814 | 10-10 | 13 | ▼6 | Super regional |
| 20 |  Indiana | 76.2 | 42-15 | 8.12 | 3.18 | 76 | 34 | 1756 | 0-5 | — | — | Regional |
| 21 |  Arizona | 76.0 | 37-20 | 8.14 | 3.24 | 17 | 19 | 1701 | 8-16 | 21 | – | Regional |
| 22 |  UCF | 75.0 | 40-18 | 7.17 | 2.44 | 24 | 22 | 1737 | 5-13 | 16 | ▼6 | Super regional |
| 23 |  Washington | 74.3 | 37-19 | 7.37 | 2.78 | 30 | 30 | 1691 | 2-12 | — | — | Regional |
| 24 |  South Carolina | 73.8 | 32-28 | 6.60 | 2.10 | 6 | 27 | 1664 | 6-24 | 25 | ▲1 | Regional |
| 25 |  Stanford | 73.6 | 37-15 | 7.64 | 3.20 | 33 | 21 | 1747 | 7-8 | 22 | ▼3 | Regional |
| 26 |  Ole Miss | 71.7 | 36-25 | 7.32 | 3.22 | 13 | 20 | 1723 | 5-19 | 25 | ▼1 | Regional |
| 27 |  Omaha | 71.7 | 34-11 | 6.95 | 2.87 | 105 | 41 | 1724 | 0-5 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 28 |  Southeastern La. | 71.2 | 45-14 | 6.22 | 2.22 | 127 | 35 | 1785 | 1-2 | — | — | Regional |
| 29 |  Northwestern | 70.7 | 29-21 | 7.19 | 3.29 | 31 | 47 | 1687 | 1-14 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 30 |  Grand Canyon | 70.6 | 51-9 | 6.54 | 2.66 | 104 | 26 | 1775 | 0-5 | 23 | ▼7 | Regional |
| 31 |  Virginia | 69.4 | 40-14 | 6.52 | 2.87 | 48 | 25 | 1686 | 4-8 | — | — | Regional |
| 32 |  Kansas | 69.3 | 35-21 | 7.15 | 3.51 | 43 | 39 | 1689 | 4-9 | — | — | Regional |
| 33 |  Georgia Tech | 69.1 | 31-28 | 6.74 | 3.14 | 25 | 53 | 1676 | 2-15 | — | — | Regional |
| 34 |  Louisville | 69.0 | 44-13 | 7.57 | 3.98 | 84 | 29 | 1721 | 3-2 | — | — | Regional |
| 35 |  Michigan | 68.7 | 36-21 | 6.94 | 3.42 | 40 | 42 | 1672 | 2-12 | — | — | Regional |
| 36 |  North Carolina | 68.4 | 32-18 | 8.11 | 4.65 | 55 | 52 | 1615 | 1-14 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 37 |  Clemson | 68.3 | 34-22 | 6.40 | 2.94 | 27 | 28 | 1690 | 6-11 | 24 | ▼13 | Regional |
| 38 |  Penn St. | 68.2 | 33-20 | 7.32 | 3.89 | 68 | 57 | 1633 | 1-9 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 39 |  Utah | 67.4 | 35-20 | 6.37 | 3.08 | 62 | 61 | 1652 | 6-10 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 40 |  Nevada | 67.0 | 37-19 | 7.06 | 3.86 | 78 | 50 | 1686 | 2-7 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 41 |  Missouri | 66.6 | 28-29 | 5.82 | 2.70 | 11 | 49 | 1610 | 7-18 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 42 |  Boston U. | 66.3 | 43-16 | 7.07 | 3.99 | 165 | 70 | 1701 | 2-3 | — | — | Regional |
| 43 |  Purdue | 66.3 | 34-20 | 6.61 | 3.53 | 57 | 40 | 1646 | 1-7 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 44 |  Fla. Atlantic | 66.2 | 33-19 | 6.23 | 3.17 | 82 | 65 | 1631 | 1-4 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 45 |  Jacksonville St. | 66.0 | 41-16 | 6.66 | 3.64 | 95 | 38 | 1691 | 0-3 | — | — | Regional |
| 46 |  Wichita St. | 65.6 | 35-16 | 6.82 | 3.89 | 66 | 33 | 1713 | 1-3 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 47 |  Texas St. | 65.4 | 38-21 | 5.45 | 2.55 | 52 | 46 | 1716 | 2-4 | — | — | Regional |
| 48 |  St. Thomas (MN) | 64.8 | 34-17 | 6.30 | 3.51 | 131 | 63 | 1650 | 0-2 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 49 |  Auburn | 64.7 | 26-27 | 6.98 | 4.21 | 8 | 48 | 1590 | 2-18 | — | — | Missed the field |
| 50 |  Belmont | 64.2 | 40-12 | 5.22 | 2.54 | 122 | 31 | 1711 | 2-4 | — | — | Regional |
How it is built — and what was checked
Every half-game of the season is one observation in a single ridge regression. A team’s offense, every team’s defense, and one home-field term are solved together, so the rating is what a team would do against an average D1 opponent on a neutral field.
runs_scored = 5.09 + O[offense] + D[defense] + 0.20 x home home = +1 at home, -1 on the road O > 0 scores more than average D < 0 allows less than average DiamondIQ = 50 + 47 x (O - D) / (best O - D)
Why not just iterate
The obvious approach — adjust offense by opponent defense, then defense by opponent offense, repeat — is a feedback loop. Good defenses inflate their opponents’ offensive ratings, which deflates those defenses further. It walked the best offense out to 12 runs a game before settling. One joint solve with a ridge penalty does not have that failure mode.
What the rating is not
It is predictive, not a résumé. It does not know who won a trophy and does not care. That is why the national champion sits fifth and a 32-28 team sits inside the top 25 — and it is the entire reason to put it next to a poll rather than in place of one.
Known limits
NCAA scoreboards do not flag neutral sites, so postseason games carry a home-field term they should not — worth about a fifth of a run. Games against non-D1 opponents are excluded, which is why the records here run one to three games light of the official NCAA totals.
- Records reconcileAll 50 teams’ game-derived W–L lands within four games of the official NCAA win–loss table — the gap is non-D1 opponents, which the model excludes on purpose.
- Runs allowed reconcile48 of 50 teams’ game-derived runs allowed land within 8% of the NCAA’s own runs-allowed column.
- The champion falls out of the dataReading only the game log, the last game played is Texas 4, Texas Tech 1 on June 4 — matching the recorded 2026 title series with no reference to the bracket file.
- Postseason field matches exactlyThe 16 super-regional teams and 8 WCWS teams derived from game dates are identical to the tournament bracket on record. Zero disagreements.
- Every polled team is hereAll 26 teams in the final ESPN.com/USA Softball poll (two tied at 25) appear inside this top 50 — none missing, no name unresolved.